What is the Future of the Ecommerce Industry in 2025?

The ecommerce industry continues to expand and transform. With global retail ecommerce sales projected to exceed $8 trillion by 2026, there’s clearly huge opportunity for retailers, large and small, to grow their online sales. 

But that doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. 

Obstacles remain. The market is more competitive than ever. Add to this that consumer shopping behaviors, needs, and expectations are constantly in flux, particularly when it comes to online channels, and it’s clear that retailers face new challenges as we head into 2025.  

It’s clear that retailers face plenty of challenges as well as innovations heading into 2025, but three stand out:

• Social commerce and how best to leverage it
• AI & ML and how best to integrate it
• The rise of mobile and how to make sense of it

In the past few years alone, we’ve seen consumers migrate to their phones and social platforms to shop, ushering in yet another channel, social commerce. Global social commerce sales are expected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2026. That’s a huge chunk of the ecommerce market. 

The integration of AI and machine learning to facilitate personalization is now a given from the perspective of customers and retailers alike. According to an HBR survey, 98.4% of organizations plan to increase investments in AI and data in 2025 and nearly 90% said both are a top priority. Mobile is also having an ecommerce moment. Mobile commerce accounted for 44.5$ of ecommerce sales in 2024 (or roughly $543 billion). These changes are accelerating, pushed forward by enthusiastic young consumers and astonishing technological advancements.

Key Drivers of Change in the Ecommerce Industry

This year, consumers are dealing with less disposable income and more debt, issues that are motivating shoppers to focus on value. Per PwC’s 2024 Voice of the Consumer Report, 64% of consumers are concerned with inflation, with shoppers particularly sensitive to price increases. This is motivating them to switch to lower cost “discount” brands. Other behaviors of note: consumers will spend more on groceries and less on discretionary items, seeking more value for their money, and integrating physical shopping into an increasingly connected online/offline buying journey.

Consumers are moving away from “fast” everything (fashion, furniture, food, etc.) thanks to “de-influencers” on social media. These are content creators who steer their followers away from overconsumption and emphasize sustainable, mindful consumerism. In fact, sustainability has become a key purchase driver. PwC notes that consumers are willing to pay, on average, 9.7% more for “sustainably sourced or produced goods.” 

The secondhand market is also booming, driven by inflation and the shift to sustainable purchasing habits. Social commerce continues to grow and fuel these behaviors, as well as ecommerce purchasing overall. Platforms like TikTok and Instagram are now major shopping destinations.

The future of ecommerce technology is about supporting and expanding changing consumer behaviors. According to Publicis Sapient, many ecommerce websites will implement generative or conversational search tools in 2025 to improve product discovery and recommendations. But PwC also notes that only about a third of consumers are excited about GenAI for ecommerce tasks like real-time price comparison and improved search results. 

AI is making it easier for companies to personalize products, content, and promotions for each customer, while also enabling more resilient and sustainable supply chains through improved demand forecasting and supplier tracing. Payment technology is also adapting, with “invisible payments” and buy-now-pay-later options becoming more prevalent to reduce checkout friction.

Ecommerce Trends 2025: What to Watch 

Trends are born from consumer expectations, demands, and behaviors. Here are the top ones we’re seeing for 2025.

1. AI Evolves

Consumers and retailers remain intrigued with AI and its many possibilities, but the key shift in 2025 is how AI is being deployed across the entire shopping journey. 

Retailers are using AI and machine learning—along with data—to tailor product recommendations and customize content at important stages of the buying journey (e.g., homepage, product pages, shopping cart, etc.) For example, a Monetate retail client customized their home page creating four variants for different customer segments. The personalized home pages saw a 26% lift in clickthrough rates compared to the static page. 

Per Publicis, 67% of consumers want personalized shopping interactions and over 70% expect customized recommendations. AI has moved way beyond basic chatbot and simple product recommendations. 

Tools like intelligent search and AI shopping guides provide comprehensive, individualized, and data-driven experiences. Machine learning allows these experiences to adapt in real-time based on customer behavior data and other signals.

2. Transparency Wins

Consumers want transparency from retailers. They expect you to be clear about how you share and use their data and clarify important issues like sustainability practices, this includes ethical AI use. According to Publicis Sapient, while consumers are excited about AI’s potential to improve shopping experiences, they don’t fully trust the tech. Specifically, shoppers are concerned about misinformation and job losses. 

Trust is particularly important when it comes to sustainability claims and sourcing practices. If this is an area of strength for you, don’t be shy about it. Being clear about sourcing and production helps build trust even if you’re not quite where you need to be. Half of global consumers say they trust companies that reveal their sourcing and production methods more than those who simply publish sustainability certifications. This transparency extends to how you communicate costs to shoppers, chiefly at checkout. According to Statista, 30% of shoppers said they abandon their carts because of surprise costs at checkout.

3. Mobile Dominates

Mobile devices, particularly smartphones, have become the primary gateway for online purchases. US retail mobile commerce sales exceeded  $564 billion in 2024. Growth in this channel is driven by a trifecta of trends including technology that’s improving mobile experiences, the explosion of social commerce, and younger shoppers, particularly Gen Z. 

Platforms like TikTok and Instagram blur the lines between social browsing and shopping, turning virtual shopping into a shared media experience.  This “shoppable media” makes social commerce easier and more intuitive, taking consumers from consideration to purchase in just a few clicks. As social platforms evolve from marketing channels into full-fledged shopping destinations, features like one-click checkout and live shopping make it more customer-friendly than ever.

4. Boundaries Disappear

Consumers move fluidly between devices to research and buy products. While smartphones lead the way. According to PwC, 56% of consumers “always or frequently” use their phones for pre-purchase research. DHL’s 2024 Ecommerce Trends Report found that the buying journey often involves laptops (34%), retailer apps (22%), and voice assistants (5%). 

Shoppers might discover products as they scroll TikTok on their phone, research the item on their laptops, and buy the item in the physical store. As with many cool things, young shoppers lead the way. Per the DHL report, 35% of consumers under 45 use voice search to make purchases, compared to just 19% of older consumers. 

5. Physical Goes Digital

Physical retail is getting a digital makeover as retailers blend online convenience with in-store experiences. Smart mirrors in fitting rooms that identify products and recommend items is one example. These mirrors are being tested in H&M’s SoHo store and can identify products and provide personalized recommendations. 

Mobile apps help shoppers find items while in stores, access detailed product information, and make it easy to apply coupons and rewards at checkout. This tech integration is meant to be highly functional versus flashy so that physical shopping becomes truly customized. With brick-and-mortar still accounting for 82.9% of US retail sales, retailers have an opportunity to  bring the best of digital commerce into physical spaces.

6. Smarter Supply Chains

Supply chain disruptions are hitting retailers from multiple angles in 2025. Labor disputes threaten to shut down East and Gulf Coast ports, while Houthi attacks in the Red Sea force cargo ships to take longer, costlier routes. It will be important for retailers to have backup plans in place for pivoting to new suppliers in different regions and spot potential problems before they happen. AI and advanced analytics help spot potential problems like these early so you can pivot quickly by, for example, ordering more inventory.

How Technology is Shaping the Future of Ecommerce

Looking ahead, the future of ecommerce technology will focus on making online shopping even more intuitive, efficient, and personalized. AI is at the forefront of this prediction, adding sophisticated capabilities like individualized search and predictive inventory management to the ecommerce landscape. 

Hyper-personalized product discovery simplifies ecommerce search even in complex categories like automotive and electronics. AI will also need to prove its worth (from an ROI perspective) by demonstrating measurable business value versus just generating hype.

The lines will continue to blur between digital and physical shopping spaces with augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) tools that enhance online and offline experiences. Thanks to AR, shoppers can visualize how items like clothing, sunglasses, and makeup look on them in real-time using their smartphone camera. For home goods, AR preview placement helps customers visualize furniture and decor in their actual spaces before purchasing. These technologies are particularly effective in reducing returns and increasing purchase confidence.

The technology is evolving beyond basic product visualization. For example, interactive user manuals now provide 3D visualizations and step-by-step instructions when customers scan products with their phones. LEGO is a great example of this. Customers can download the LEGO Builder app and get a step-by-step 3D guide when building a set. The guide allows users to zoom, rotate, and view their model in full 3D as they construct it. Social commerce is also being transformed as brands leverage AR filters on platforms like Instagram and Snapchat, turning product discovery into an engaging, interactive experience.

Challenges Ahead and How To Overcome Them

There are some challenges retailers will inevitably face as they embrace this year’s trends and implement new technology to support them. These include:

1. Data Privacy Concerns

Consumers increasingly demand stronger data protection and transparency in how their information is used. New privacy regulations across regions are also adding compliance complexity. Mitigate this by being proactive about data protection measures and remaining transparent about data usage. Clearly communicating your data practices goes a long way towards building trust.

2. Global Competition

International sellers from new and emerging markets benefit from pricing advantages and loopholes like the De Minimis tax rule in which imports under $800 can skip duties and taxes, undercut established retailers. Platforms like Temu and Shein dominate with ultra-low-cost goods. Retailers can respond by focusing on unique value propositions, building strong brand loyalty, and optimizing their supply chains to remain competitive on price without sacrificing quality.

3. Supply Chain Disruptions

Global supply chains face continued instability for a host of reasons including potential port strikes, political instability, weather-related delays, cyberattacks, and many other things. Address potential delays and issues before they become a crisis by diversifying supply sources, maintaining higher inventory levels, and developing contingency plans for shipping disruptions.

4. Sustainability Expectations

Consumers want your sustainability efforts to be tangible. They should go beyond messaging to (clearly communicated) specifics on how you’re reducing waste, recycling, and investing in the environment. This isn’t a quick fix, but it’s an important issue for consumers. Efforts to tangibly incorporate sustainability (e.g., implementing recyclable packaging, offering carbon-neutral shipping options, etc.) build both trust and loyalty—plus it’s good for the Earth.

5. Balancing AI with Humanity

Retailers now have the advantage of AI and machine learning to help them create and scale highly personalized shopping experiences. But it’s also important to maintain authentic human connections throughout the customer journey. PwC’s Voice of The Consumer survey revealed that consumers want personalization, but they still value human interaction, particularly for complex inquiries and emotional support. Use AI for what it’s good at—data analysis, intelligent search, customized product recommendations, testing and optimization. But make sure your customer support humans are readily available for meaningful engagement.